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The automobile has long been a symbol of everything great and everything terrible about America. On the one hand： freedom， individualism， power， speed. The taming of millions of miles of varied wildernesses through roads， then highways， then interstates. The capacity of American industry―Pittsburgh’s steel， Akron’s rubber， Detroit’s factories.

But on the other hand： gas-guzzling1） SUVs. Traffic and sprawl. The abandonment of mass transit. The decline of the Rust Belt2）， the near-collapse of the Big Three automakers3） during the Great Recession of 2008， and the slow death of American manufacturing and blue-collar work.

Now， after four decades of doldrums4）， things are looking up5） for American carmakers， in ways that would have been hard to imagine just 10 years ago. Yet the changes ahead won’t reconcile the great and the terrible of the past； instead， the conflicts between freedom and community， power and equity， will play out in new ways. Here’s what that future will look like. 1. Baby Steps Toward Autonomy …

Google， Tesla， and Uber―companies that didn’t even exist when Toyota introduced the Prius， in 1997―have become major players in the auto industry. Both Google and Tesla aim to introduce fully autonomous cars―that is， cars that drive themselves―within the next several years， and Uber recently founded an R&D center in Pittsburgh with an eye toward6） ushering in our driverless future.

Self-driving cars are expected to be much safer than human-driven ones. But even if the first robot cars hit the roads in the next few years， most of us probably won’t give up driving entirely for at least another 15 or 20 years. In the meantime， traditional cars will gradually take over certain aspects of driving.

Companies have been adding semiautonomous features to cars since the 1990s―things like adaptive cruise control， which uses sensors to adjust a car’s speed based on the traffic in front of it， and automated parallel parking. Some cars automatically stop―or at least slow down―if a driver doesn’t step on the brake in time to avoid a collision， and in certain 2017 Mercedes-Benz models， the driver will be able to change lanes simply by hitting the turn signal for two seconds （the car will take care of the rest）. Within a few years， cars may be able to determine when an accident is likely and make adjustments to the cabin―moving seats， closing windows， retracting the steering wheel.

Even better than preparing for a crash， of course， is preventing one. Some vehicles emit warnings when they detect， via cameras and sensors， that a driver is getting drowsy. Future cars might take over for sleepy drivers―or automatically pull to the side of the road and shut down. Biometrics could aid this process. If a car has sensors that can measure a driver’s respiration and heart rate， it could shift into self-driving mode when a driver has a heart attack or passes out. 2. … And Big Leaps

While traditional manufacturers slowly add semiautonomous features， Tesla is taking a more aggressive approach. Last year， an update to the software in certain Model S vehicles added the ability to operate via “autopilot7）”： The car mostly drives itself， but the driver can take over if， for example， the car attempts to exit the freeway unbidden―as it did during some runs soon after it was introduced last year. Each time a driver intervenes， Tesla registers the correction in its software， which is distributed across its fleet. The idea is that over time， the cars will get better at driving.

Tesla’s autopilot occupies a regulatory gray area， since updates to a car’s software don’t require the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s approval―though that could change as the agency rules catch up with technology. Ford or GM would likely never have put such an untested system into service， but Tesla’s tech-forward8） customers seem willing to take the risk， even if those of us who have to share the road with them would rather they didn’t.

Early this year， Tesla updated its software again to add a way to “summon” your car. The car can turn itself on， open the garage door， and meet you in the driveway like an automotive butler. For now， the feature is meant to be used only on private property， but Tesla promises Knight Rider-style9） summoning in the future： Your car will greet you at the airport when you return from a trip or sync with your calendar and know where to pick you up after a meeting downtown. 3. Cars That Talk to One Another

Apps like Waze already allow drivers to alert others to traffic jams or accidents. Soon， cars will automatically contribute to a shared mesh10） of traffic and routing information through vehicle-to-vehicle communication systems. In addition to providing better traffic reports， these systems―through which cars will constantly transmit their location， speed， and other data―are expected to make driving much safer. If a driver brakes suddenly， or makes a blind turn， the car will issue a warning to others nearby to help them avoid a collision. The NHTSA expects vehicle-to-vehicle communications to result in significantly fewer accidents each year. 4. The Car as Conference Room

Once cars become fully autonomous， they won’t need to take the form they have for more than a century. One concept design is the Mercedes-Benz F 015， which transforms the vehicle into a “digital living space.” Inside， seats swivel to face one another， and a series of displays permit passengers to entertain themselves or work. In other words， cars could double as conference rooms―and employers may begin to demand that people use their commutes productively.

The F 015 design is sleek11） and beautiful―it looks like a silver bullet―but style may become passé12） in future cars. Autonomous cars work best as fleets rather than as private property， because a car that can drive itself can be put to use even when you aren’t in it， and the tech companies making them prefer to sell services rather than products. Eventually， car ownership could become a thing of the past.

That would mean an end to the pride and personalization of owning a car. Perhaps the garage， that great cornerstone of suburban architecture， will become a relic. Likewise parking spaces and lots， freeing up valuable real estate for greener and denser urban living. （Meanwhile， the exurbs could prosper if people no longer dread a long drive to work.） Your children might give as little thought to the kind of car they ride in as you do to the brand of subway train you take.

As idyllic as it might seem not to have to finance， drive， or park a car， there will be downsides. Once autonomous vehicles are everywhere， letting humans share the roads as pedestrians， bicyclists， or drivers could be seen as too dangerous. Driving conventions like traffic lights and dedicated turn lanes could become obsolete， and transit could develop into a puzzled web of robotics that no human brain can navigate. 5. Where Are the flying Cars？

Flying cars have been part of our science-fiction dreams ever since Henry Ford13） pitched an early personal airplane back in 1926―Ford’s aircraft division actually tried to build a “Model T of the air.” Ninety years later， discarded prototypes litter junkyards and collectors’ garages， but no viable mass-market product has ever emerged.

That might still change. The latest candidates include Skycar， a flying-car prototype， and the Ehang 184， an autonomous electric quadcopter introduced at the 2016 Consumer Electronics Show， in Las Vegas. In 2013， a company called Terrafugia announced plans for a self-flying car； it expects to have a prototype ready for testing by 2018. A commercial model will take at least another five years.

When they do arrive， flying cars will likely cost at least several hundred thousand dollars. They may replace the Lamborghini or the Bentley as the status car of the super rich. But for most of us they’ll remain a dream， even if not a science-fiction one.

长期以来，汽车一直既代表了美国所有了不起的东西，又代表了美国所有糟糕的东西。一方面：它代表自由、个人主义、力量和速度。行驶在道路、公路、州际公路上，汽车征服了绵延数百万英里的各种荒野之地。它还代表着美国的工业产能――匹兹堡的钢铁、亚克朗市的橡胶、底特律的汽车工厂。

而另一方面导致的结果是：油老虎SUV车型出现；交通堵塞，城市无计划扩张；公共交通被抛弃；铁锈地带衰落；三大汽车制造商在2008年经济不景气时几近，以及美国制造业和蓝领阶层逐渐消亡。

而现在，历经40年的消沉之后，对美国汽车制造商来说，局面又有了转机。在10年前，这都是难以想象的。然而，过去好的一面和坏的一面不会因为未来的变化而调和。相反，自由与集体、权力与公平间的冲突会以新的方式演绎。未来可能会是下面这样的。 1.自动驾驶蹒跚迈步

谷歌、特斯拉、优步，这些在1997年丰田推出普锐斯这款车时根本就不存在的公司现在已经成为汽车工业的主角。谷歌和特斯拉的目标都是要在未来几年内推出全自动驾驶汽车，也就是会自己驾驶的汽车。优步公司近期在匹兹堡成立了研发中心，意图在未来的无人驾驶技术方面走在前沿。

自动驾驶的汽车预计要比人类驾驶的汽车安全得多。但是即便第一批机器人汽车能几年之内上路，我们大部分人很可能仍不会完全放弃自己开车，至少在此后15至20年内不会。与此同时，传统汽车会逐渐接管驾驶的某些方面。

自20世纪90年代以来，汽车制造商一直在给汽车增加半自动化功能，比如自适应巡航控制功能和自动平行泊车功能。自适应巡航控制技术利用感应器，根据前方的交通状况来调整汽车速度。如果驾驶员未能及时踩刹车以避免撞车，有些汽车会自动停车，起码会自动减速。在梅赛德斯-奔驰的某些2017款的车型中，驾驶员只需按住转向按钮两秒便能够进行变道（汽车会完成剩下的工作）。几年之内，汽车或许就能够判断什么时候可能发生事故，并对车舱进行调整――移动座位、关车窗、回撤方向盘。

防备相撞事故发生当然不错，但更好的还是要防止事故发生。有些车辆通过摄像头和传感器发现驾驶员昏昏欲睡时，会随即发出警报。未来汽车可能会代替瞌睡的驾驶人而自动驾驶，或是自动开到路边然后熄火。生物测定学能够为这一过程提供帮助。汽车如果装有能测量驾驶员呼吸和心率的传感器，当汽车驾驶员心脏病发作或晕厥时，它能够进入自动驾驶模式。 2……接下来的大飞跃

在传统汽车制造商缓慢增加半自动功能时，特斯拉采取的是一种更加激进的策略。在特斯拉去年的一次车载软件更新中，S款的一些车辆增加了通过“自动驾驶”进行操作的功能。车辆主要是靠自动驾驶，但驾驶员也可以控制方向盘，比如在汽车未经许可就试图驶离高速公路的情况下――去年在这一功能引入后不久，车辆在使用这一模式时就发生过这样的情况。驾驶员每进行一次干预，特斯拉就将纠错情况记录到配置在其系列车型的软件中。这么做的意图是，希望随着时间的推移，汽车会变得更加善于驾驶。

但是，特斯拉的自动驾驶技术处于监管的灰色区域，因为更新车辆软件不需要美国国家公路交通安全管理局的批准。不过随着该机构的法规跟上技术发展的脚步，这一局面也可能改变。福特或是通用汽车很可能永远也不会将这样一个未经测试的系统投入运营，但是特斯拉那些技术前卫的客户们似乎愿意冒这种风险，虽然我们中那些不得不跟他们共享道路的人宁愿他们不要这么做。

今年年初，特斯拉再次对其软件进行了更新，增加了一种车辆“召唤”功能。汽车能够自动启动，打开车库门，然后自己开到车道上跟你会合，就像汽车管家一样。这一功能暂时还只可用于私人地产内，但是特斯拉许诺未来会提供“霹雳游侠”那样的召唤功能：外出回来时你的车子会去机场接你，或是跟你的日程同步，当你在市区开完会后知道去哪儿接你。 3.会彼此交流的汽车

像Waze这样的应用程序已经能让驾驶人提醒他人注意交通堵塞或是交通事故。很快，汽车便能通过车对车通讯系统，自动为交通和路线信息共享网络提供讯息。除了能够提供更好的交通信息报道之外，这些通讯系统还可以让汽车不断地发送各自的位置、速度以及其他数据，因而可望让驾驶变得更加安全。如果驾驶员突然刹车，或是通过看不见另一头的急转弯路段时，汽车会向附近的其他车辆发出警告，帮助它们避免发生碰撞。美国国家公路交通安全管理局预计，车对车通讯会让每年的交通事故明显减少。 4.汽车当会议室

汽车一旦完全自动化，就不需要再采用现在这种已延续了一百多年的形状。奔驰F 015概念车就是一个例子。该车将汽车变成了“数字生活空间”，车内的座位可以旋转，乘客可以相向而坐，各种显示屏可以让乘坐者选择娱乐放松或是工作。换句话说，汽车可身兼两职，作为会议室使用，而老板们可能会开始要求员工高效利用他们的通勤时间了。

F 015的设计优雅又美观，看上去像一颗银色的子弹，但是对未来汽车而言，款式可能会变成一种过时的东西。自动驾驶汽车用作车队使用时才能发挥最佳效能，而非用作私人财产，因为即便你不在车内，一辆可以自动驾驶的汽车仍然可以投入使用，而制造汽车的科技公司会更愿意卖服务而非产品。最终，拥有汽车会成为过去的事。 特拉弗吉亚的自我飞行汽车

这会意味着，拥有汽车不再能带来自豪感，也不再体现个性。车库这一郊区建筑的伟大基石也有可能会变成遗迹。停车区和停车场也一样，从而释放出高价值的地皮，使都市生活更绿色，人口更稠密。（同时，如果人们不再担心要开车开很远去上班的话，远郊可能会繁荣起来。）你的孩子可能根本不会考虑他们乘坐的是哪种车，就跟你根本不在乎你所乘地铁的品牌一样。

不用出钱买车，不用自己驾驶，也不需要泊车，似乎跟田园诗一般美好，但是这也有其不好的一面。一旦到处都是自动驾驶汽车，人类与之共用同样的道路行走、骑自行车或自己驾车，可能会被视为是过于危险的行为。诸如交通信号灯、专用转弯车道之

类的驾驶法规可能被淘汰，交通可能发展成一个由机器人组成的复杂网络，人脑都无法驾驭。 5.距离会飞的汽车还遥远吗？

自1926年亨利・福特大张旗鼓宣传其早期的个人飞机以来，会飞的汽车一直是我们科幻梦的一部分内容。福特的飞机部门真的曾试图建造一种“空中T型车”。90年过后，废弃的原型车散落在各个垃圾场和收藏家的仓库里，而真正可靠的大众市场产品还从未出现。

这种情况也可能会发生改变。最新的候选方案就有“天空汽车”，一种飞行汽车的原型车；还有“亿航184”，在2016年的拉斯维加斯消费电子产品展上介绍过的一种自动电子四旋翼直升机。2013年，一家名叫特拉弗吉亚的公司公布了生产自我飞行汽车的计划，预计到2018年生产出可用于测试的原型车。商业型最少还需再等五年时间。

当飞行汽车真的面世时，一辆车的耗资最少可能也得数十万美元。这种车可能会取代兰博基尼或宾利，成为象征超级富豪身份的汽车。但是，对我们大多数人而言，它仍将只是一个梦，即便不是一个科幻梦。

1.gas-guzzling [?as??z（?）l??] adj.〈美口〉（汽车发动机等）非常耗油的，耗油量大的，吞油的

2.Rust Belt：铁锈地带，指在美国等国家原先有大量制造厂而现在面临经济困难的地区。

3.the Big Three automakers：指美国汽车制造商福特、克莱斯勒和通用汽车

4.doldrums [?d?ldr?mz] n. [复] （工商业、艺术创作活动等的）停滞；低潮；萧条时期

5.look up：好转（尤指价格上升或市场活跃）；有起色

6.with an eye toward：试图；有……的企图；期待

7.autopilot [???t???pa?l?t] n. [航]自动驾驶仪

8.tech-forward：技术前卫的

9.Knight Rider-style：指具有像美剧《霹雳游侠》中先进的智能跑车KITT那样的功能。

10.mesh [me?] n. 网；网状物

11.sleek [sli?k] adj. （外形）线条流畅的

12.passé [?p?se?] adj.〈法〉过时的；落伍的

13.Henry Ford：亨利・福特（1863～1947），美国汽车工程师与企业家，福特汽车公司的建立者。他是世界上第一位使用流水线大批量生产汽车的人。他的生产方式使汽车成为一种大众产品。