U.S― Fed's Reality Show on Rates lSn't Convincing美联储的现实反映在利率举措上的情况不具说服力

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本文是《华尔街日报》今年2月伊始的一篇时评，讲的是在美国通货膨胀停滞不前的情况下，美联储仍寄望于今年6月份提高利率，这一举措因与现实情况相抵触而欠缺说服力，投资者为此感到质疑。这是一篇实打实的经济类文章，在获取经济观点的同时，让我们来看看业内行家是如何翻译本文的。

Sure， investors are fighting the fed. But the Fed is fighting the reality. Even with falling oil pnces and the rising dollar poised to put the freeze on inflation， Fed- eral Reserve policy makers still look as if they hope to start raising interest rates in June.

投资者在跟美联储博弈，这是千真万确的。而美联储却在与现实较量。即便油价一路下跌，美元走强，致使通胀停滞不前，关联储的政策制定者仍似乎寄希望于在今年六月份着手调高利率。

The statement they released Wednesday following their two-day meeting noted that inflation readings are likely to cool further in the months ahead and that bond-market measures of expected inflation have fallen substantially. Still the Fed expects inflafon over the medium term to move forward its 2% goal.

两天会议后，关联储于周三发表声明指出，通胀数据有可能在未来数月进一步走低，而且，债券市场也大幅减少了应对预期通胀的措施。然而，关联储依旧预期在中期内，通胀水平会趋于2%的既定目标。

Yet credit-market participants have come to think the Fed's liftoff on rates will likely come later. Federal-funds futures， which price off of Fed target rate expectations， now put higher odds on the central bank tightening policy in September than in June. And Treasury yields have fallen markedly over the past month.

然而，信贷从业人士已经逐渐认为，关联储有可能晚些时候再放开利率。已调低了对关联储利率预期的联邦基金期货，更看高九月，而非六月美国央行将会出台的金融紧缩政策。而国债收益在过去几个月也经历了严重下跌。

Fed offiaals may act like they can raise rates despite what is happening with infla- tion readings，but investors are questioning whether that is really the case.

即使通胀数据目前如此变化，但关联储的动作似乎依然显示他们有能力提高利率，但投资者质疑他们是否会真的采取行动。

One reason： Inflation readings are about to get a lot cooler. With gasoline now averaging just over $2 a gallon nationally， the Labor Department's consumer-price index reading this month willlikely be below its year-earlier level， and inflation neg- ative territory in the months to come. As lower energy costs filter into the prices of other goods and services， and as the gains in the dollar cut into the pnces of imports， core inflation-the change in prices including food and energy-looks likely to fall toward just l%.

一个原因是：通胀数据将会降低很多。由于目前全国汽油价格只有平均每公升两块多美元，所以，本月劳工部消费者价格指数将有可能比去年的水平低，通胀率呈现负数的局面会在未来几个月中出现。随着较低的能源成本对其他的产品和服务价格的渗透，和以美元计算的收益反映到进口价格中，核心通货膨胀（即在食品和能源价格变动上）将有希望降到仅仅1%的水平。

It also is likely that this will be temporary， and that after the effects of lower oil and rapid dollar strengthening pass through the system，prices will heat up. That is likely especially if an improving job market forces employers to pay up to attract workers.

很可能这种情况是暂时的，而且，更低油价和快速走强的美元，二者作用于经济体制内，各种价格还将上扬，这也是有可能的。特别是，如果劳动力市场转暖，雇主要增加工资以增加对员工的吸引力，也会促使价格水涨船高。

But that doesn't mean that the drop in inflation willlook temporary， or that the Fed will be able to confidently conclude that cooling prices haven't worked their way into consumers' inflation expectations.

但这并不意味着，通胀的下降将是暂时的，亦或，关联储将能够自信地断言，价格下降不会影响到消费者的通胀预期。

So why didn't Fed policy makers cave and signal that the first rate move will come later？. Probably because they want to keep open the option of tightening in June， just in case the data take a turn higher. But unless that turn comes by March， when they meet next， they won't be able to keep June on the table for much longer.

所以，为何美联储的决策者不有所查觉而警示大众：第一波利率调整会拖后呢？也许是因为，一旦数据出现一次升高，他们便想在六月份伺机采取货币紧缩政策。但是，除非到今年三月份，出现数据上升，他们做下一次利率调整，否则，他们不可能长时间闲置着为六月份准备的措施而不采取任何行动。

经济词汇注解：

core inflation核心通货膨胀

核心通货膨胀是指剔除一些价格变动巨大且频繁或短期性质价格波动的商品或服务后的通货膨胀，以核心CPI来表示。通货膨胀率的测算往往是通过一系列有代表性的商品价格的波动来定义的。

inflation expectations通胀预期

通胀预期是指人们已经估计到通货膨胀要来，预先打算做好准备要避免通胀给自己造成损害，然而防范通胀的措施本身就会造成资产价格的上升，即对通胀的预期本身就会加快通胀的到来。