Moody’s CEO: no turmoil in China’s financial market
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moody’s ceo： no turmoil in china’s financial market
Raymond McDaniel， CEO of the ratings agency Moody’s， said on December 12 that China’s reform is positive and no turmoil will happen to China’s financial market.
“We are quite positive about this，”McDaniel said. The credit rating of China is stable and is not likely to be lowered in 2014.
In November 2013， the 3rd plenum of the 18th CPC Congress of China drew the general blueprint of China’s economic reform. The changes are going to help to solve the problems of excess production capacity， local governmental debts and shadow bank.
McDaniel said that he saw the determination of the Chinese government. The force of the reform made them give out high ratings of the economic outlook of China. “The reform has positive influence over the credit in most economic fields of the Chinese economy， including the central government， local governments and most industries.”
“As for the time of the reform， since China is enjoying fast economic growth and free of the financial crisis， it is wise to initiate the reform at this moment，”McDaniel said. Moody’s is bullish on the reforms to the financial market and the development of Shanghai Free Trade Zone. All these are the positive factors that influence the credit ratings of China.
McDaniel said that Moody’s learned a lesson from the U.S. property bubbles and enhance itself in the forecast through discovering more problems earlier.
Shanghai Disneyland to expand for the good outlook of free trade zone
As the construction of Shanghai Disneyland was fully started， Disney is preparing for the expansion based on the strong demand in the future.
On December 10， Jay Rasulo， CFO of Disney， said the park in Shanghai will not be finished until 2015， and the company believed that it was necessary to expand its size as soon as possible to meet the increasing demand in the future. Both Disney and its Chinese partners are hoping to accelerate the pace of construction.
Wei Changren， CEO of China Travel Consultancy， said that Shanghai Disneyland planned expansion before being opened just because Disney was bullish on the construction of Shanghai Free Trade Zone and its future development.
Rasulo said that the company had expected a large number of tourists when designing the park， but now it expected that the number of tourists could be only smaller than Tokyo Disneyland， which received 28 million tourists， and became the second businest Disneyland in the world.
Rasulo pointed out that Disney already decided to expand the Disneyland in Hong Kong in October 2013.
On October 9， Hong Kong Disneyland announced the plan of expansion for the new zone featuring Iron Man. Restricted by the small size and the competition with local theme parks， Hong Kong Disneyland did not perform very well in the financial report. For this， Disney tried to look for the new profit points through expanding the park. As of 2011， Hong Kong Disneyland spent US$465 million in expanding. The new project indeed attracted tourists. In the 2012 financial year， Hong Kong Disneyland welcomed 6.73 million tourists， 13% more than the previous year. 45%， or 3 million of them， came from mainland China. 33% were locals of Hong Kong while 22% were foreigners.
Rasulo pointed out that the business of Hong Kong Disneyland is increasing fast after the new project. Disney firmly believed that the two parks in Shanghai and Hong Kong would attract different kinds of tourists， like the ones in Florida and California. Thus they cannot be competitors with each other.
Shanghai Disneyland now takes 1000 hectares， next to its counterparts in Orlando and Pairs. Now Disney owns 43% of the stakes of Shanghai Disneyland. The total investment into Shanghai Disneyland now amounts to US$4.4 billion. For this， Disney’s expenditure in 2014 is going to be US$ 1 billion higher than last year’s.
Wei Changren pointed out that the Shanghai international resort area centering around Disneyland is expected to bring about an industry valuing billions of yuan. Apart from Shanghai Disneyland， the hotels， shopping malls， transportation facilities， catering， residency and culture will be driven as well. The relevant artistic performance， insurance and consumption are expected to benefit from this too.
China’s banking industry is going to be more open
The relevant directors of China Insurance Regulatory Commission （CIRC） and China Banking Regulatory Commission （CBRC） said on December 14 in the tenth annual conference of International Economic Forum that the banking and insurance industries were to be more open to the outsiders in the future.
“The banking industry is going to continue to open and to welcome the banking organizations from different countries and regions to set up branches in China. In addition， the foreign banks are allowed and encouraged to buy stakes of Chinese banks，” said Wang Zhaoxing， vice chairman of CBRC.
The CIRC said that it was going to improve the policies to make the insurance industry of China more open to foreign investors. “The CIRC is studying into the policies about access to foreign capital， as well as the way of regulation of insurance following the pattern of negative list. The goal is to exert the role of foreign insurance companies in the reform and innovations，” said Huang Hong， vice chairman of CIRC.
In the 3rd plenum of 18th CPC Congress of China， the leaders of China put forward the goal of opening the financial industry more open. Actually， when China joined in the WTO 10 years ago， it made the promise of opening the financial industry gradually. In these years， the foreign financial institutions got apparent development in China.
According to Wang Zhaoxing， now there are more than 70 foreign from about 50 countries and regions having set up 40 subsidiary banks and 190 branches in China.
“Foreign banks have got good development in China and become an integral part of China’s banking industry. They also made great contributions to the economic development and financial market of China，” Wang said.
As for the insurance industry， Huang Hong said that the foreign insurance companies from 15 countries and regions had set up 55 wholly-owned and jointinvested insurance companies in China， taking 31% of the total number of insurance companies in this country.
However， due to various reasons， foreign capital still takes a low market share in the Chinese financial industry.
Greespan： there are economic bubbles in China
Former U.S. Federal Reserves’ president Alan Greenspan said in a Chinese economic forum that the signal of reform released in the 3rd plenum of 18th CPC Congress included the proposal to allow private investors to open banks. The economic reform is bulky and complicated. Thus it is necessary to keep it on the right direction.
He said that the good point of Chinese economic reform is that it could keep the system running well and drive the financial to develop to the better side. The negative point is that China follows the financial and fiscal system of the U.S.， which now inevitably met economic bubbles. He reminded that economic bubbles could be seen in Chinese economy like what once happened in Western countries.
He continued that each bubble will culminate in the past century and the investors went though the change from the bull market to the bear market and from being optimistic to being pessimistic. Then they began to use the currency reserves， stocks or other methods to solve the problem.
In his opinion， the bubbles cannot be avoided. Since it is the human nature that leads to the bubble and men cannot change their nature. When people are very， very optimistic， the bubbles will come out and finally break out. “What we can think is what shall we do after the burst of the bubble，” he said.
The bubble can bring about positive influence over the technological innova- tion. “The bubbles are not related to the risks brought by the debts. We cannot do anything to keep the bubbles from bursting. Nor should we do anything to avoid the bubbles.
Foreign companies to cut jobs in China
In many Chinese people’s memories， those working for IBM， Johnson & Johnson （J&J） and Hewlett Packard （HP） are those who work in high-end office buildings， wear proper suits， carry a laptop or tablet in hands and speak fluent foreign languages. But now， the elite class is facing the danger of losing their jobs.
As the Chinese economic growth slowed down in 2012， many foreign companies found that the profits of their Chinese branches shrank as well. In order to save the cost， HP， J&J， IBM and Unilever chose to cut jobs in China.
HP， which plans to cut 27，000 jobs around the globe， said that 20% of the lay-offs might happen in China. Cutting jobs is an integral part of HP’s new CEO Meg Whitman’s persistent task of“reducing the cost”.
A former employee of HP said that cutting jobs had become a trend in the PC industry. The Chinese market does not take a big part in the global industry. But Lenovo and some other companies have cut jobs indirectly， meaning that the Chinese PC market has been influenced as well.
Since the financial report is not good， IBM also initiated the plan of cutting jobs. It is expected to lay off 6000-8000 employees worldwide and the Chinese branch is not excluded. In October 2013， IBM said in its financial reporting that the demand in China was slowed. The PR director of IBM China said： “The technologies keep changing and transformation is what IBM must do now. Therefore， the restructuring of the employee structure will be a continuous task for us.”
Unilever saw its sales drop in the third quarter， especially in emerging markets like China. The headquarters of Unilever issued 2，000 notices of lay-offs， some of which were given to Chinese employees. But Unilever has made it clear that it would not reduce the investment in China.
In addition， many foreign companies have reduced the recruitment in China.