“I Am Not in Denial”

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ANAND SHARMA looks after three vital economic departments – trade, industry and textiles. The 59-year-old lawyer from Himachal Pradesh won his spurs in student politics and then the Youth Congress and has seen his star steadily brighten in the UPA’s firmament. He is now spoken of as a strong contender for the job of India’s finance minister if Pranab Mukherjee goes up Raisina Hill to Rashtrapati Bhavan. He met BUSINESS TODAY the day before a trip to Brazil. Excerpts from the interview:

On fears that nothing the government does now will stem the slide in the economy, especially with national elections looming in 2014:

Considering that we are living in an interdependent world, interconnected – the adverse impact has hurt the Indian economy too, particularly if you look at capital flows, commodity prices, petroleum prices, all of them have impacted the currency (and caused) the rupee’s devaluation. Secondly, that has also contributed to the burgeoning trade account deficit. Though our exports have increased the deficit has increased much more primarily because of the skyrocketing petroleum prices.

(On) what we do now, whether it is going to turn around the present situation. The answer would be yes. It’s a question of how long it will take for the final results to kick in. The mood, the sentiment can be uplifted once some decisions are taken like fast-tracking of the key infrastructure projects. So it’s both the demand and the supply side from where the job creation and sustainability comes, which also has another positive spin-off – that is consumption. If there is economic activity, if incomes grow, if jobs are created, consumption will also increase, particularly of consumer goods. So again it’s a multiplier.

On the rupee’s rapid depreciation neutralising falling oil prices:

The (oil) prices are falling only marginally. The larger issue is even if you are importing at $100 (a barrel) you are still importing in dollars, and a substantial part of what we export, there is an import component, even in what you produce or manufacture. Not for all, but the import component is also substantial. (Those imports) will again be in hard currency. That will not be in rupees and many of the exporters have entered into dollar trading contracts. So those who have done that, they are hurt. Then at the same time the importers particularly in the traditional destinations I’m told have been sitting on huge inventories because of the contraction of demand, given the very weak recovery or nil recovery in many of the developed countries in Europe. So the importers are demanding big discounts because of the currency devaluation. Multiple blows. It’s not simplistic. There would be some segments that would be benefited, but overall it is not going to improve the trade account deficit at all, not even remotely.

On the government’s paralysis on reforms:

The government has a very strong commitment to the reforms agenda. We know that the last few quarters there has been a deceleration. We are concerned, not only about the rupee devaluation, but more so industrial production, particularly the manufacturing sector, which we want to change. Last year we had come out with the National Manufacturing Policy, which is in my view perhaps the most significant policy roll-out in recent decades, with the aim of raising the share of manufacturing in (GDP) to 25 per cent, (creating) 100 million jobs, but effectively cutting out delays and red tape to create the best possible model with a single window clearance mechanism.

Now insurance reforms are with Parliament. I hope the monsoon session will clear them. The government is keen and we are urging the opposition to support this. India’s national interest lies in that. Third is the GST(Goods and Services Tax). That to my mind alone will be a single booster dose for the GDP.

On whether the GST will happen:

The states are very much a party to this process, because the committee of the finance ministers of the states is chaired by Sushil Modi (of Bihar). So once that committee has made its final recommendation, I’m sure that those(states) would be on it. I see no reason why they shouldn’t be. Election year or no election year, we have to bear in mind, governments are in office and in a democracy, the governments also change, but the philosophy should not change if you are in opposition or if you are in government…In a democracy, dialogue is important. There are other issues where we can exchange words or can have a political debate, but these are not issues which should be trapped in partisan considerations and this must also include the (FDI in) multi-brand retail. Because what India is seeking to do is entirely different from what other countries have done. It has a distinct Indian signature. It has conditionalities which no other countries have done(like) 50 per cent from the rural back end. From modern warehousing to processing, to cold storages, the entire value chain, plus they will open up only in cities with a population of one million plus. So only 52 out of 4,000 cities and towns in India. Again there might be many states which might not opt for it to begin with. Therefore the viability in economic terms would demand that those who invest in a big way, they also sell to the retailers. It is pure business sense. And the policy mandates that they are obliged to sell to the licensed retailer at the wholesale price. So this entire canard, the khudra vyapari or the small retailer will lose out, not at all. That’s not the question. They are not going to come in and take over your neighborhood stores.

On concern that India has lost its shine and the “I”is about to fall out of BRIC:

Yes, there is an overall slowdown. There is deceleration even in China. We cannot blame it entirely on global factors. Some of the factors are our own, when you have major reforms trapped in partisan politics. But one or two big decisions can turn it around so quickly that you cannot imagine. You can turn around in weeks. You don’t need years to turn around. We have seen it in the past. It will happen. I feel that the present downturn…yes, it is serious. We have moved into strong headwinds. But it should bottom out. And I remain hopeful. Of course praying for a good monsoon.

On being spoken of as the next Finance Minister:

We have Pranabda. I am very passionate about what we are doing here. National manufacturing policy, FDI… Last year we recorded the highest ever FDI in a single year, $50 billion plus. My aim is to keep on expanding and doing as much work, situation permitting and leaders agreeing. So I am very comfortable here.

On working to change the negative perception about India:

Yes, we have to change the perception. We have to turn around the situation. We cannot just sit back with a sense of resignation. This is the time leadership gets tested. And this is the time to heave yourself, not the time to be overwhelmed. I am of this view. I am not running away from the realities, I am not in denial.