Preparing for Trump’s America

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When Donald trump first de- clared his candidacy for U.S. President， he was considered little more than a noisy troublemaker. However， now that he has been sworn in as President of the United States， the world must prepare for changes brought by the Trump administration.

Although Trump didn’t systematically elaborate on his foreign policy ideas， some valuable clues can be found in speeches he made during the campaign. First， Trump strongly advocates the “america first”doctrine， and his foreign policy echoes an old isolationism. Compared with his predecessors since World War II， Trump demonstrates a weaker desire for American global leadership. He opposes excessive U.S. involvement in world affairs and objects to so many overseas burdens， arguing that the U.S. should focus on domestic problems. Second， Trump is a nationalist， economically. He cares about U.S. interests and economic holdings and sees globalization in a negative light， opposing free trade. Trump has seemed just as skeptical about global governance and international cooperation. For example， he has asserted that the Paris Agreement， which deals with climate change， is unnecessary and that some international organizations are unreliable.

Based on these clues， the Trump administration’s foreign policy is expected to veer in a new direction.

First， the U.S. will practice more strategic retrenchment and retreating. The Obama administration （2009-2017） learned a lesson in over-reaching from the Bush administration （2001-2009） and carried out strategic contraction to some extent. For example， Obama ended the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and showed more restraint and prudence in launching overseas military interventions. It now seems that Trump may go even further. Of course， since the U.S. has considerable overseas interests， Trump will find it hard to practice complete isolationism. Instead， he will likely pursue a policy of selective participation and involvement， focusing on safeguarding American traditional interests in Europe， the Middle East， and East Asia， and asking allies to shoulder more security responsibilities.

Second， Trump will put the brakes on globalization and global governance， or even attempt to reverse some aspects of globalization. Trump will pull U.S. participation from both the Trans-Pacific Partnership （TPP） and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership （TTIP）， both of which were aggressively promoted by the Obama administration. Trump may also withdraw from the Paris Agreement， just as the Bush administration abandoned the Kyoto Protocol. Trump has shown apathy towards mechanisms promoting global economic governance and regional trade-and-investment-liberalization such as the Group of Twenty and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation.