Decipher China’s Role as No. 1 Trader
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Even though there was sus- picion over the authenticity of the data about the goods trade of china in the first four months of 2013， there were enough marks to show that China could definitely have surpassed the U.S. and taken the first place in the global goods trade last year.
On January 10， Zheng Yuesheng， spokesman for the General Administration of Customs， said in a press conference that China’s goods trade volume surpassed the U.S. in 2013 and its imports and exports marched into a new era as the total volume exceeded one trillion yuan.
China’s local media CBN Daily made a report at the beginning of this year， tacking down the data about goods trade in the past 11 months. The analysts capitalize on the statistical range of the international trade taken by the WTO， pointing out that it was an impossible mission for the U.S. to keep the championship in the global trade volume in 2013.
Then， what happened to the external trade of China in 2013 and what is pushing China to be the world’s largest trader. In that case， the strategy of“making China go out” is an indispens- able factor.
The said “making China go out”refers to the increased focus of China on overseas investment and deals. From January to November 2013， China invested totally US$80.24 billion in the non-financial industries of overseas markets， with the 28.3% year-on-year growth rate. It is expectable that China would speed up in“going out”， leading to the faster growth rate of China’s export.
Behind the“Mission Impossible”
In the press conference on January 10， Zheng Yuesheng listed a group of data to make his speech more convincing.
The data offered by Zheng Yuesheng showed that the total imports and exports volume of China in the first ten months of 2013 had surpassed the U.S. by US$192 billion. In addition， the annual growth rate of China’s trade was 7 percent higher than the U.S.
‘Based on these， I think it has been confirmed that China could defeat the U.S. and become the largest trader in the world in 2013，” Zheng Yuesheng said.
The statistical data showed that the total exports and imports volume of China amounted to US$4.16 trillion， which is the not only historical high for China， but also the first time for this country to have its imports and exports exceed four trillion U.S. dollars. In recent years， China had continuously created new records in the foreign trade. It surmounted the levels of one trillion， two trillion and three trillion in 2004， 2007 and 2011.
Earnest & Young held a press conference on January 6， reporting the results of its new research into the future development orientations of foreign banks in China.
The report pointed out that most foreign banks hold optimistic opinions towards their future in China as the financial reform keeps progressing.
The Status Quo
In the second half of 2013， the Chinese government announced a series of economic reforms， including the setup of Shanghai Free Trade Zone， the start of collective offering of the benchmark interest rate for loans， the promotion of market-oriented interest rate and the further internationalization of RMB.
More importantly， the financial reform won the full support from the government and the CPC as reported in the 3rd plenum of 18th CPC Congress of China. “All these measures are good news for foreign banks that are running the business in China. Any measure to build a more open， transparent and de-regulated financial market will be broadly welcomed，” said Geoffrey Choi， partner of audit service at the Finan- cial Department of Earnest & Young Greater China. “However， for foreign banks， how many benefits they can have still depend on the scope， schedule and effect of these changes.”
Presently， foreign banks take less than 2% of the total assets in the Chinese banking market， lower than the figure in 2007. The main reason to the fall is that the domestic banks in China developed fast with the financial reform. But when the figure of proportion is put aside， it is easy to see that the foreign banks are still expanding their business in China. Many respondents interviewed by Earnest & Young believe that the growth of foreign banks’ assets in China will be faster than in any other country in three years. Meanwhile， the growth will cross the boundaries of first-tier cities and move to lesser cities of China， said Brian Metcalfe， the author of the report.
As the RMB market becomes more opened and more international， many foreign banks expect themselves to benefit from the increasingly intensified trade and financing activities. The increase in the two-way capital flow brought by foreign investment into China and China’s outward investment will lead to a dramatic increase in the foreign exchange settlement business. The progress in the internationalization of RMB will have new products come out one by one.
Therefore， many foreign banks stated that they were actively capitalizing on the concept of RMB offshore center. These RMB offshore centers will assist foreign banks in capturing the business opportunities in offshore RMB deposit， settlement and foreign exchange deal in the future.