全球经济十大预测
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Top 10 Economic Predictions for 2006
By Nariman Behravesh
1
Solid Growth Will Last for at Least Another Year.
Strong growth momentum in the United States and Asia has been both the underlying cause of record-high energy prices and the reason why the global economy has managed to shrug them off. Global Insight expects both the U.S. and global economies to grow at a rate of about 3.5% in 2006 (compared with 3.7% and 3.4%, respectively, in 2005).
稳步增长至少会再持续一年
美国和亚洲的强劲增长态势既是能源价格创下新高的深层原因也是全球经济能够免受其扰的原因所在。环球透视机构预计，美国和全球经济在2006年的增幅会在3.5%左右（分别相对于2005年的3.7%和3.4%）。
2
The United States Will, Once Again, Outpace Europe and Japan.
Not every region of the world will enjoy strong growth in 2006. Japan's growth spurt over the past two years is likely to peter out - with the economy expanding only 1.9% in 2006, compared with 2.4% in 2005. While the pace of growth in Western Europe will accelerate a little to 1.9% (from 1.5% last year), the fundamentals remain weak. Consumer spending is virtually flat, and more than half the growth is export led. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank just raised interest rates and will probably tighten again during 2006, and fiscal policy is about to become more restrictive in Germany.
美国将再次把欧洲和日本甩在后面
世界各地并非都会在2006年拥有强劲的增长。日本在过去两年内的迸发式增长可能会渐渐消退――相对于2005年的2.4%，其经济在2006年只会扩增1.9%。虽然西欧的增长速度会（从去年的1.5%）略升至1.9%，但基础仍旧薄弱。消费性开支几近持平，有一半以上的增长是出口导向型的。与此同时，欧洲中央银行刚刚提高了利率并有可能在2006年期间再度紧缩银根，而且德国将会在财政政策上实施更多的限制。
3
China and the Rest of Asia Will Remain the Star Performers of the Global Economy.
The Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan, will be able to sustain growth of around 6% in 2006. While the Chinese economy is expected to cool off a little, Global Insight predicts that 2006's growth will be at least 8.4% (compared with 9.3% in 2005). Other key economies will also be expanding rapidly (e.g., India at 6.7% and South Korea at 6.0%). While exports continue to drive growth in these economies, domestic demand has also been robust (capital spending in the case of China and consumer spending in other economies, such as South Korea).
中国以及亚洲其它地区仍旧是全球经济的亮点
2006年，除日本以外，亚太地区将能够维持6%左右的增长率。虽然中国经济预计会稍微有所降温，但环球透视机构预测，2006年的增长至少会达到8.4%（相对于2005年的9.3%）。其它重要的经济体同样也会快速扩增（例如，印度的增幅为6.7%，韩国的增幅为6.0%）。虽然在这些经济体中出口在继续推动增长，但国内需求同样旺盛（就中国来说是在资本开支方面，而在韩国等其它经济体中则是在消费性开支方面）。
4
Oil Prices Will Slide Gradually - But the Risks Are on the Upside.
Oil and gasoline prices have fallen substantially since hitting record highs (before adjusting for inflation) in the wake of hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Global Insight expects that the price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude will continue to slide from around $60 per barrel in early December 2005 to $52 by the end of 2006. However, with real GDP growth and energy demand predicted to stay robust, oil market conditions will not ease up by much. This means that the risk of another spike in oil prices - triggered by a weather-related or geopolitical disruption - is still uncomfortably high.
油价将逐渐下滑，但风险却在加大
紧随“卡特里娜”和“瑞塔”飓风之后，石油和汽油价格先是创下新高（未根据通货膨胀率进行调整），而后便大幅下跌。环球透视机构预测，“西德克萨斯中质油”的每桶原油价格将继续下滑，从2005年12月初的每桶60美元左右降至2006年底的52美元。然而，由于实际的国内生产总值的增长和能源需求预计将保持旺盛，所以石油市场的形势不会有很大缓和。这意味着石油价格（因相关的气象干扰或地缘政治干扰而）再度攀升的风险仍旧很高，令人不安。
5
Core U.S. Inflation Will Edge Upward.
So far, inflation has remained a low-level threat worldwide, despite strong growth and high energy prices. However, since the United States has been growing above trend for the past two years, it has become more vulnerable to inflationary pressures. But inflation is unlikely to get out of control. Outside the United States, inflation is even less of a threat - in Europe because growth has been below trend, and in China because of its investment-led boom.
美国核心通货膨胀率将会慢慢提升
尽管增长强劲且能源价格高，但是到目前为止，通货膨胀的威胁在世界范围内却维持在一个低水平之上。然而，由于美国在过去两年中一直是高于一般水平进行增长，所以该国变得更易受到通货膨胀压力的影响。但是通货膨胀未必会失去控制。在美国以外，通货膨胀甚至还算不上是威胁――在欧洲，那是因为增长低于一般水平，而在中国则是因为投资导向型带来的快速增长。
6
The Fed Will Keep Tightening Through the Spring.
Since mid-2004, the Federal Reserve has been on a course of slow, steady tightening of monetary policy, with the goal of bringing the federal funds rate into a "neutral zone" (estimated at 4.5-5.5%). Global Insight predicts that the Fed will raise rates at least three more times between December 2005 and March 2006, before taking a breather. This will leave the funds rate at 4.75%. Other central banks are also feeling the need to become less accommodating.
美联储在春季将始终紧缩银根
自2004年中期起，联邦储备署就一直在平缓地紧缩货币政策，旨在将联邦基金利率导入“中性区”（估计在4.5%~5%）。环球透视机构预测，联邦储备署会在2005年12月到2006年3月间将比率至少提高三倍，然后再做休整。这会使基金利率停留在4.75%的水平。而其它中央银行也感到了降低通融性的必要。
7
House Prices Will Level Off Without Crashing.
Rapidly rising home prices and concerns about possible housing bubbles have been among the major pre-occupations of analysts and policy makers over the past couple of years. The specter of a crash in home prices has haunted not just the United States, but other economies, including the United Kingdom, Australia, Ireland, Spain, and Sweden. So far, the British and Australian housing markets have cooled down without crashing. The same fate probably awaits the U.S. economy in 2006. The housing "bubbles" are likely to deflate without bursting.
房屋价格将会持平，不会崩盘
在过去几年内，房价暴涨和对于可能出现的房产泡沫的担心一直都是分析师和决策者们的重要关注点之一。对于房价崩盘的恐惧不仅弥漫于美国，在包括英国、澳大利亚、爱尔兰、西班牙和瑞典在内的其它经济体中亦是如此。到目前为止，英国和澳大利亚的房产市场已在没有崩盘的情况下冷却下来。而2006年，等待美国经济的可能也是同样的命运。房产“泡沫”可能会在没有爆发的情况下破灭。
8
The U.S. Current-Account Deficit Will Plumb New Depths - Again.
After breaching the $800-billion threshold over the past year, the U.S. current-account deficit will again break records, reaching $900 billion (or 6.8% of GDP) during 2006. The fundamental reasons for this continuing deterioration are too much domestic-led growth in the United States and too much export-led growth in other parts of the world
美国经常项目赤字将再创新高
美国经常项目赤字在去年突破了8000亿美元的关口之后，将在2006年期间再次打破记录，达到9000亿美元（即国内生产总值的6.8%）。这一持续恶化情况的根本原因在于美国的内需导向型增长过大，而世界其它地区则是出口导向型增长过大。
9
The Dollar Will End the Year Lower Than at the Start.
Most economies with ballooning current-account deficits usually suffer large currency depreciations. This happened to the United States from 2002 to 2004. Over the past year, though, the dollar has stabilized, and even appreciated recently. As the U.S. current-account deficit continues to deteriorate in 2006, and as soon as the Fed stops hiking rates, investors will likely take a more pessimistic view of the dollar.
岁末的美元币值将低于年初
通常，经常项目赤字出现激增的经济体大多都会遭遇货币的大幅贬值。从2002年到2004年就在美国发生了这种情况。不过，在过去一年中，美元保持了稳定，甚至还于最近出现了升值。随着美国经常项目赤字在2006年继续恶化，一旦联邦储备署停止抬高利率，投资者就有可能对美元持有一个更为悲观的看法。
10
There Will Be No Recession in the Next Couple of Years, Without the Convergence of Two or More Big Shocks.
The U.S. and global economies were able to withstand a number of major shocks in 2005 without missing a beat. This remarkable resilience indicates that growth will be sustained over the next couple of years. Only if two or more severe shocks were to happen simultaneously would a recession become inevitable. What would it take to trigger a global recession? A combination of oil prices above $100 per barrel, inflation and interest rates running 3 percentage points above current levels, and a 10% drop in home prices across many industrial country markets. All possible, but unlikely in either 2006 or 2007.
随后几年中只要不集中发生两次或两次以上的重大震荡就不会出现衰退
2005年，美国和全球经济能够在没有出现停顿的情况下经受住了许多重大震荡。这一惊人的回复力表明，在随后几年中增长还会持续。只有同时发生两次或两次以上的严重震荡，才会不可避免地出现衰退。什么条件下会引发全球性的衰退？油价每桶超过100美元、通货膨胀和利率比当前水平高出3个百分点、房价在许多工业国家的市场上下降10%，以上各项缺一不可。所有这一切均有可能，但不可能会发生在2006或2007年。
经济相关词汇
consumer spending 消费性开支
capital spending 资本开支
domestic demand 国内需求；内需
West Texas Intermediate
简称“WTI”，指美国西德克萨斯中质油，其价格常被作为国际原油贸易中的基准交易价格。
GDP 其全称是“Gross Domestic Product”，即“国内生产总值”。
current-account deficit 经常项目赤字
depreciation 贬值，动词为“depreciate”
appreciate 升值，名词为“appreciation”
inflation 通货膨胀
the European Central Bank 欧洲中央银行
the Federal Reserve （美国）联邦储备署
fiscal policy 财政政策
monetary policy 货币政策
interest rate 利率
federal funds rate 联邦基金利率
housing bubbles 房产泡沫
record high （价格）新高
domestic-led内需导向型
export-led出口导向型
investment-led 投资导向型
LINKS
1. 文章相关背景资料
本文是纳里曼・柏拉维什博士（Dr. Nariman Behravesh）所作，他是环球透视机构的首席经济师兼执行副总裁。此人履历丰富，早年曾在美国国会预算办公室和美联储任职，后又在多家知名经济机构担任要职，从事相关经济工作，最后加盟了环球透视机构。
而环球透视机构（Global Insight）是一家总部位于美国、成立于2001年3月的公司，由美国的华顿计量经济预测协会（Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates，简称WEFA）和数据资源公司（Data Resources Inc，简称DRI）联合其它一些公司合并而成。这家公司成立伊始，营业额就达到了7000万美元，业务分布于经济预测、咨询和定向分析方面，在12个国家拥有的经济师和其他员工合计500多名，是全球最大的经济机构，在世界范围内为来自工业、金融和政府领域的3000多客户提供服务。
2. miss a beat
在文章的最后一段用到了一个词组“miss a beat”。这原来是音乐术语，意思是错过了一个正常节拍，而后来则转指由于尴尬、困惑以及其它方面的原因而迟疑片刻。通常，这词组与否定词进行搭配，表达“未受干扰或影响而出现停顿”，如“She answered the reporter's question without missing a beat.”